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Emerging Giants poll for BBC World reveals the battle of today's rising economic giants

China predicted the biggest economy in 20 years' time in international opinion poll, but democracy is seen as crucial for economic development

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British Broadcasting Corporation
BBC World Ltd Press Office
Woodlands, 80 Wood Lane, London W12 0TT

London , May 22nd, 2006 - An international poll commissioned by BBC World and powered by global market intelligence solutions provider GMI ( Global Market Insite, Inc.) reveals the world expects China to be the top economic superpower by 2026. A quarter of respondents believe India will be the third-biggest economy, while the U.S. is expected to hold the second place*.

The poll results, which support the Emerging Giants season of news reports and programmes on BBC World starting on 22 nd May, also revealed that respondents agreed emerging economies such as India and China cannot take economic success for granted. They suggested the two countries must address serious impediments to growth, including population, political stability and lack of democracy.

In the biggest international poll ever for BBC World, close to 10,000 respondents in 10 countries around the world were asked what they thought about the rise of China and India, and who they believed would be the world’s top economies in 2026. Throughout the season, the results of the poll will be discussed on the various programmes on the channel, and viewers are encouraged to put forward their opinions on the results at bbcnews.com/haveyoursay.

The survey asked why ordinary people think China and India will become economic superpowers much earlier than forecast. The biggest asset for China was seen to be its huge population (88%), followed by its low labour costs (83%). These two assets were also perceived as important to India’s growth. However, respondents ranked India’s English-speaking population (83%) as its top asset for growth ahead of labour costs (77%) and population (66%).

However, the study also revealed that people perceive today’s emerging economies as having some inherent problems. Different issues were identified in each of the countries’ development. 70% of all respondents identified lack of democracy, population growth, bureaucracy and corruption as China’s biggest impediments to growth. India was seen as having other concerns with more than 80% of respondents marking out lack of infrastructure, economic instability and scarcity of resources.

Although awareness of these economic factors is high, the survey also revealed a strong consensus that democracy has an influence on economic development. 87% of respondents thought this was China’s biggest problem, while three quarters (77%) thought democracy was India’s biggest asset. Respondents were also asked whether they agreed with the statement “democracy is essential for economic growth” - three quarters did.

Those questioned were divided on whether these new economic giants would have positive or negative effects globally. Overall, respondents were more positive than negative about the emergence of China and India, and 52% of respondents agreed that Indian women had the most to gain from economic growth.

However, developed nations took a less positive view. The French, followed by the Italians and the British, were most concerned about how the emerging economies would affect them personally and their country. More than other nations, the Germans (53%) are most sensitive to these new giants ending domestic job security.

Notes to editors:

* 41% of respondents expected China to be the biggest economy by 2026, with the USA coming second (35%). By contrast, economists have projected China would not overtake the USA as the number one economy until 2041 (Source: Goldman Sachs).

For further information, please contact :

BBC World Press Office
Tel: +44 (0) 20 8433 1078
Email: bbcworldpressoffice@bbc.co.uk

GMI Press Office
Daniel Couzens
GBC
+44 (0)208 322 1922
gmi@gbc.co.uk

BBC World, the BBC's commercially funded international 24-hour news and information channel, is owned and operated by BBC World Ltd, a member of the BBC's commercial group of companies. BBC World is available in more than 200 countries and territories worldwide, and reaches 279 million households (139 million 24-hour homes) and more than one million hotel rooms. BBC World launched in its present format in 1995 and is funded by advertising and subscription. For further information on how to receive BBC World, download schedules or find out more about the channel, visit bbcworld.com.

BBC World conducted this international survey using GMI’s market research software platform Net-MR® and global panels.

Graphs and charts

	Of these ten countries, which do you think will be the biggest economy in 2026?
	Based on the perception of China and India as they are today, what will be the biggest asset in their growth?
	What will be the biggest impediment to China and India's growth?
	We'd like to know how positive you think the rapid growth of the economies of India and China will be for the following groups:
	How far do you agree or disagree with these statements about economic growth?
	The emergence of the economies in China and India...

About GMI Poll

GMI Poll quickly and accurately gathers international opinions about topical issues and critical global events, with real-time results available in as little as 24 hours. GMI Poll is the only survey that polls global opinions in real time, online, and with statistically accurate results.

About GMI

GMI (Global Market Insite, Inc.) is the only company that provides comprehensive integrated solutions for global market intelligence for both market research firms and corporate market research departments at Global 2000 companies. Solutions include Net-MR®, a suite of software tools to manage and automate research throughout the project lifecycle, desktop analysis tools, 24x7x365 service bureau capabilities, and one of the world’s largest, highly profiled, double opt-in managed panels, spanning across 200 countries. In addition, GMI offers high-value, real-time enterprise feedback solutions for customer, partner and employee programs. Founded in 1999 with world headquarters in Seattle, Wash., GMI has operations on five continents.